CALL US TODAY: 775 415 - KIRK (5475)

Register for Our Next Live Webinar:

"The Momentum-Maker Mastermind: Mindset, Methods, & Metrics"

Join Kirk on April 12th @9:45 AM (Pacific Time)

GET FUNDED FAST FOR HOME AND BUSINESS!

Kirk Jaffe Enterprises, Inc. has funded thousands of companies just like yours. Contact Us today to Get Started!

Our Services

Kirk Jaffe Enterprises, Inc. has multiple services for home buyers and business owners.

Make us your preferred solution for home and commercial real estate.

MORTGAGE LENDING

We offer the most competitive rates and excellent service beyond closing. Guaranteed! PRO.

REAL ESTATE AND PROFESSIONAL CONSULTING

We offer guidance to real estate professionals, tax professionals, lawyers, and CPA's.

BUSINESS CONSULTING

Are you ready to grow your business to
the next level and beyond. Kirk has helped hundreds of businesses and
can help you get there faster.

INVESTMENT ASSISTANCE

Our proven track record in solid investments has help hundreds and could help you too. Ask us how!

FIND OUT WHY KIRK JAFFE IS THE BEST CHOICE FOR LOANS AND HELPING BUSINESSES GROW!

Kirk Jaffe, CEO/Founder – Executive Management of $200MM private investment fund including Mortgage Notes, Real Estate Owned (REO) and Commercial Property Holdings. He has overseen and held executive authority of over 20,000 real estate transactions in his 20-year real estate career including buying and selling of property, foreclosure, short sale, loan modification, rehabilitation of property with an aggregate over $1 Billion value. Kirk has also originated over $ 1 Billion of new Mortgages.

Kirk is the past President of the Universal City/North Hollywood Chamber of Commerce as well as a former co-chair of the ALFN Commercial Practices Committee. He is active as a speaker and moderator of several trade organizations including the CA Mortgage Bankers Association (CMBA), Mortgage Banking Association (MBA), and the Attorney Legal Financial Network (ALFN). Mr. Jaffe is quoted or has been a guest of several media outlets including: KABC790 Talk Radio, NBC and the Los Angeles Daily News to name a few.

Kirk Has Appeared On:

How Can We Help

You Today?

Start Quote

Change Plan

Contact

Let Us Know What You Need!

We custom fit every service to your personal business needs. Whatever it is, we have a solution. Just click the button below to get assistance today!

If you're looking for a firm who can help you with not just your mortgage, but help you GROW YOUR BUSINESS FAST... you're where you should be!

  • MORTGAGE LENDING
    We offer Custom Tailored mortgages for Home or Business!

  • BUSINESS CONSULTING

    Grow your business FAST with our Business Consulting Services!

  • INVESTMENT CONSULTING - REAL ESTATE ASSETS
    Our win/win approach to investing has helped hundreds. FIND OUT MORE!

  • REAL ESTATE PROFESSIONALS
    If you are a real estate professional and are ready to work with a partner with years of experience, you're in the right place.

  • CPAS, ATTORNEYS, AND INSURANCE PROFESSIONALS
    If you have questions about the potential legal implications of real estate transactions for your clients, Kirk Jaffe has the answers!

1 / 5
2 / 5
3 / 5
4 / 5
5 / 5

WHAT OUR CLIENTS HAVE TO SAY

“What a GREAT guy Kirk is! I highly recommend him and his services all the time and for my own home loan needs. Why would I say that as a Broker myself? Well as a Buyer and a Broker I cannot have my hand into many aspects of the transaction, so I trust Kirk with my financing needs he has yet to let me down! "

Steve Duncan

"Kirk is my go-to lender. He has worked many “miracle situations” and provides top notch service from start to finish...."

Jeff J. Grice

"I have known Kirk Jaffe for many years. Kirk has a stellar reputation. You can see his reviews by going to www.mycity.com/profile/kirk-jaffe."

Bob Friedenthal

"When I need any information regarding the Real Estate Financing space for a client, my first call is to Kirk Jaffe. He is knowledgeable, professional, and experienced. He stays on top of cases and follows up with clients. He is a true asset to my business."

Bruce Fine

"Kirk works hard and well day and night, a kind person and gets it done fast!"

Melissa Oppenheimer

"Kirk did a fabulous job. He walked me thru the process and it was incredibly easy compared to other mortgages I've done. Thanks to Kirk, my house closed in under 21 days, and he got me a great interest rate."

CHARLIE JEWETT

WHY WORK WITH KIRK JAFFE ENTERPRISES, INC?

Because we offer the best service at affordable rates and will help your company grow faster! Click the button or
CALL US AT (775) 415 - KIRK (5475)

blog image

Inflation Uncertainty Keeping Rates in Consolidation Mode

May 13, 20234 min read

Inflation Uncertainty Keeping Rates in Consolidation Mode

Scroll down far enough on the list of Webster's definitions of the word "consolidate," and you'll find "to form together into a compact mass."  Financial markets appropriated that definition long ago and have been using it to refer to the condensed mass of prices, yields, or whatever else is being measured on a chart.

Speaking of charts, consolidation has a tell-tale pattern of lower highs and higher lows that form a sort of triangle or pennant (incidentally, market participants also use those terms more or less interchangeably). 

Regardless of the label, the underlying phenomenon is one of indecision or anticipation of a big move that has a chance to be higher or lower. 


Scroll down far enough on the list of Webster's definitions of the word "consolidate," and you'll find "to form together into a compact mass."  Financial markets appropriated that definition long ago and have been using it to refer to the condensed mass of prices, yields, or whatever else is being measured on a chart.  Speaking of charts, consolidation has a tell-tale pattern of lower highs and higher lows that form a sort of triangle or pennant (incidentally, market participants also use those terms more or less interchangeably).   Regardless of the label, the underlying phenomenon is one of indecision or anticipation of a big move that has a chance to be higher or lower.

Consolidation is everywhere in the market these days.  If we zoom way out and simply consider the general flow of events, this makes good sense.  As inflation surged at the fastest pace in decades, the Fed tightened monetary policy at a similarly fast pace.  Inflation can also act as a natural brake on economic activity as consumer buying power declines.

At some point, the inflationary surge levels off and we wait for price growth to moderate back toward more sustainable levels.  The presence of consolidation makes sense because we're smack dab in the middle of finding out whether inflation has leveled off as a sign that it's about to go lower, or simply to take a breath before remaining stubbornly high.  Consolidation patterns are equally likely to be seen for both reasons.

This week's focal point for economic data and the broader consolidation theme was Wednesday's release of April's Consumer Price Index (CPI).  More than any other inflation report, CPI has had the power to push rates rapidly higher or lower.

CPI was right in line with expectations this time around, which doesn't really help clear up much indecision. The monthly change of 0.4% at the core level (the one that gets the most attention from the Fed and financial markets) is right in the middle of consolidation pattern.  And the annual number remains fairly flat after coming off the higher levels seen at the end of 2022.

Inflation Uncertainty Keeping Rates in Consolidation Mode

There were some subtleties underneath the headlines that were helpful for rates.  Specifically, there was a nice little drop in core services inflation excluding housing.  This is a hot button for the Fed, as it captures a vast majority of the inflation that has been the most problematic.  Removing housing from the equation allows the market to see a shift earlier than it otherwise might (because the housing components don't move as much or as quickly).

All that to say: interest rates moved lower on Wednesday despite CPI coming in flat.  The following day, Jobless Claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI) helped the move continue, although bank sector drama was also driving investors into US Treasuries.   Yields bounced on Friday after the Consumer Sentiment survey showed 5-year inflation expectations at their highest level since 2011.

There were some subtleties underneath the headlines that were helpful for rates.  Specifically, there was a nice little drop in core services inflation excluding housing.  This is a hot button for the Fed, as it captures a vast majority of the inflation that has been the most problematic.  Removing housing from the equation allows the market to see a shift earlier than it otherwise might (because the housing components don't move as much or as quickly).  All that to say: interest rates moved lower on Wednesday despite CPI coming in flat.  The following day, Jobless Claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI) helped the move continue, although bank sector drama was also driving investors into US Treasuries.   Yields bounced on Friday after the Consumer Sentiment survey showed 5-year inflation expectations at their highest level since 2011.There were some subtleties underneath the headlines that were helpful for rates.  Specifically, there was a nice little drop in core services inflation excluding housing.  This is a hot button for the Fed, as it captures a vast majority of the inflation that has been the most problematic.  Removing housing from the equation allows the market to see a shift earlier than it otherwise might (because the housing components don't move as much or as quickly).  All that to say: interest rates moved lower on Wednesday despite CPI coming in flat.  The following day, Jobless Claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI) helped the move continue, although bank sector drama was also driving investors into US Treasuries.   Yields bounced on Friday after the Consumer Sentiment survey showed 5-year inflation expectations at their highest level since 2011.

The chart of 10yr Treasury yields above is a good proxy for interest rate momentum throughout the week.  It may not look like a good example of consolidation on such a short time scale, but if we zoom out, things change.

The chart of 10yr Treasury yields above is a good proxy for interest rate momentum throughout the week.  It may not look like a good example of consolidation on such a short time scale, but if we zoom out, things change.

And what would a good proxy for rate momentum be if its sideways vibes didn't translate to the mortgage market?

And what would a good proxy for rate momentum be if its sideways vibes didn't translate to the mortgage market?

In fact, as of Friday, mortgage rates clocked their flattest calendar month since May 9th through June 9th, 2022.  

The point of all this consolidation observation is simply to convey that the market is at a crossroads--albeit with a very long stop light--that will inform the next big move for rates and the housing market. 

If inflation moves lower out of its consolidation pattern, rates would almost certainly do the same, thus allowing homeowners some breathing room to shop for new homes without worrying about sacrificing their ultra low existing rate. 

In the week ahead, we'll get to see how that process is going via the Existing Home Sales data on Thursday. Two days prior, the Retail Sales report will provide an update on consumer spending.  In general, lower sales suggest downward pressure on inflation, but economists expect a +0.7% increase this time around compared to a 0.6% decrease in the last report.

In fact, as of Friday, mortgage rates clocked their flattest calendar month since May 9th through June 9th, 2022.    The point of all this consolidation observation is simply to convey that the market is at a crossroads--albeit with a very long stop light--that will inform the next big move for rates and the housing market.   If inflation moves lower out of its consolidation pattern, rates would almost certainly do the same, thus allowing homeowners some breathing room to shop for new homes without worrying about sacrificing their ultra low existing rate.   In the week ahead, we'll get to see how that process is going via the Existing Home Sales data on Thursday. Two days prior, the Retail Sales report will provide an update on consumer spending.  In general, lower sales suggest downward pressure on inflation, but economists expect a +0.7% increase this time around compared to a 0.6% decrease in the last report.

Inflationeconomyconsolidationmortgagerealestatebusinessinvestment

Kirk Jaffe

Back to Blog

Connect With US

CONTACT US TODAY

Need to reach us? Send us an email or give us a call today.


Kirk Jaffe Enterprises, Inc.

195 Highway 50, Ste 104-476

Stateline, NV 89449


Copyright 2024 Kirk Jaffe Enterprises All Rights Reserved